Here is the whole event in one table. Every figure is a published monthly observation from the same official table, so the shape of the move is not open to interpretation.
| Month | Pence per litre | Change on the month | 1,200 litres |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 51.84p | GBP 622.08 | |
| February 2026 | 53.46p | up 1.62p | GBP 641.52 |
| March 2026 | 104.05p | up 50.59p | GBP 1,248.60 |
| April 2026 | 103.97p | down 0.08p | GBP 1,247.64 |
| May 2026 | 89.69p | down 14.28p | GBP 1,076.28 |
| June 2026 | 76.62p | down 13.07p | GBP 919.44 |
| July 2026 | 69.98p | down 6.64p | GBP 839.76 |
| August 2026 | 90.01p | up 20.03p | GBP 1,080.12 |
DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices / QEP 4.1.1 standard grade burning oil / published 27 August 2026 / checked 23 September 2026 / lag 27 daysone to four weeks oldtier A
Typical price for a delivery of up to 1,000 litres, VAT at 5% included. Observed on the Monday nearest the 15th.
What made it a kerosene event rather than a fuel event
Kerosene and road diesel come off the same barrel but they do not move together in percentage terms, and the reason is tax. Road diesel carries a large fixed duty per litre. Heating kerosene carries none. So when the underlying product price moves by a given number of pence, that move is a much larger fraction of the kerosene price than of the diesel price at the pump.
The arithmetic is simple and it explains the whole thing. A rise of 50.59p on a base of 53.46p is 94.6%. The same absolute rise on a pump price near 150p is under a quarter of that in percentage terms. Households on oil experience every crude move roughly twice as hard as households with a car.
No duty on the litre means no cushion under the litre.
What it cost, in money
A household ordering 1,200 litres in February paid GBP 641.52. The same order in March cost GBP 1,248.60. That is GBP 607.08 of difference for buying four weeks later, and it is more than the entire measured seasonal swing across a normal year.
How much has come back
From the April print of 103.97p to the July print of 69.98p the price fell 33.99p, an unwind of 32.7%. August then went back up 20.03p to 90.01p. The move is partly unwound and it is not finished, and anyone telling you which way the rest goes is guessing.
Jan 2018 to Aug 2026 / 104 readings
low 20.26p / high 104.05p
Kerosene scale / 104 month window / colour is price level, never anything else
Bands are quintiles of the 104 month window in pence per litre. There is no red and green pair anywhere on this site. Direction is carried by the delta glyph in the text, not by colour.
What this changes about ordering
Nothing about the seasonal advice, because the seasonal swing is GBP 70.80 and this was GBP 607.08. What it changes is the case for keeping the tank above a third. A household with room in the tank in February could wait. A household running on fumes in March could not.
Primary sources for this page
- DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices, table 4.1.1Monthly typical retail price of standard grade burning oil, the fuel sold to UK households as kerosene. Priced on the Monday nearest the 15th of the month, for deliveries of up to 1,000 litres, VAT at 5% included. This is the only official UK-wide domestic heating oil price series.
- HMRC fuel duty ratesKerosene used for heating is charged at a nil rate of duty. Gas oil carries the rebated rate.
- EIA New York Harbor ULSD spot priceDaily wholesale barge price. Published on this site only as a labelled wholesale proxy and never as a retail price.
- Consumer Council for Northern Ireland home heating oil price checkerA genuine weekly regional survey, the only one of its kind in the UK. The page returned HTTP 403 to our checker on 10 September 2026, so no basket figure from it is restated on this site. Follow the link for the current week.